This video offers an in-depth analysis of the highly anticipated Monad project, providing a comprehensive evaluation of its tokenomics, market positioning, and long-term risks. The video begins by meticulously dissecting Monad's token distribution mechanism: a total supply of 100 billion tokens, with nearly 50% circulating at TGE (Token Generation Event), resulting in an initial market cap of $1.235 billion and a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $2.5 billion. This means its starting valuation is already positioned between Flare, Render, and Kaspa. Even more concerning, there are no lock-up periods for public sales and airdrops, meaning over 10% of the supply could face immediate sell pressure. The author contrasts Monad's trajectory with similar Layer1 projects like Aptos and Sui, pointing out that these so-called "high-speed blockchains" often devolve into "dinosaur chains" – Aptos generates only $2300 in daily revenue, while Sui manages just $16,000, dramatically lower than Base's nearly $200,000 daily revenue. Although Polymarket data indicates 96% of participants expect Monad's FDV to exceed $2 billion on its launch day, and Coinbase will actively support short-term price performance to promote its token sale platform, the author argues this is merely a "quick cash-out game" meticulously orchestrated by VCs. In the long run, Monad's lack of genuine use cases suggests it's likely to repeat the fate of SEI – whose market cap plummeted from $2.7 billion to $1 billion. The author advises investors to steer clear of such overvalued projects heavily controlled by VCs and focus instead on low-market-cap projects with high potential and genuine value.
